Each week we try and pick out the best value first scorer bets from the weekend fixtures
HIBS new boy Florian Kamberi landed a very nice 8/1 first goal for this column last weekend, so hopefully I can keep the good run going.
The Scottish Cup 5th Round takes centre stage this weekend and I am starting with the all-Championship tie between Morton and Dumbarton.
A feature of Jim Duffy’s success this season at Cappielow Park has been Morton’s miserly defence and they have conceded the least number of goals of any Championship side – just 22 in 22 matches.
And on Saturday Ton’s tight defence matches up with the tamest strike-force in the division – Dumbarton – who have netted just 15 times from their 22 matches.
It is hard to see anything other than a Morton win, especially with them having won their last three games which included a 3-0 away win at Tannadice.
Morton’s Gary Harkins struggled to find a regular spot in the starting line-up in the early part of the season, but since the end of October he has started the next 14 matches.
The talented 33-year-old might not be finishing many of those games but he is certainly having an impact whilst he is on the park and is the leading scorer for his side in the league.
Harkins is 6/1 to score the opening goal and that looks good.
In League Two it isn’t that long ago that Peterhead were 1/20 favourites for the title.
The pressure is right back on them though after defeats to Montrose last weekend and Clyde the one before that.
The Blue Toon now trail Montrose by four points with just two games in hand and are out to 1/6 to claim the championship.
They now face a really tricky trip down to the capital to face an improving Edinburgh City side who look to have plenty of goals in them.
In the middle part of the season the Citizens went 12 games without a win, but boss James McDonaugh has finally got his men playing and they have won three of their last five games scoring 10 goals.
I can understand why Peterhead are favourites for this game but I wouldn’t touch the 11/20 about them which looks terrible value.
As a result you can get almost 5/1 about Edinburgh City and they have home advantage too.
Scott Shepherd was snapped up by McDonaugh at the end of last year on a loan deal from Falkirk and he has scored five goals from his last five games.
The 21-year-old striker’s future probably lies away from League Two but for now his goals should keep Edinburgh City away from the automatic drop zone.
He is 15/2 to make it six in six with the opener.
Finally I really thought that Stranraer would put away East Fife last weekend, so it was very disappointing to see them lose 2-0 at home.
If that is their current level of form then they will struggle to cope with an Arbroath side that have won four of their last six games and moved up to third in the table.
Their efforts have not gone unnoticed either as Smokies boss Dick Campbell won the League One Manager of the Month award for January.
Arbroath’s Ryan Wallace joined from Stranraer at the start of January in what looked like some sort of “dispersal sale”, but the striker has struggled for goals since the move having scored 11 from 23 early in the season for Stranraer.
He will be fired up to make his mark against his old club and is 5/1 to do that with the first goal of the game.